Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Looking At DU's Projected Lineup Next Season

Forwards
Zucker (Fr) - Martin (Sr) - Maiani (Sr)
K. Ostrow (Sr) - D. Shore (So) - Bennett (Fr)
Jackson (rs-Jr) - N. Shore (Fr) - Knowlton (So)
S. Ostrow (So) - Olszewski (Fr) - Dewhurst (Jr)
Salazar (Jr) / Mermis (Fr)

Defensemen
Donovan (So) - Lee (Jr)
Nutini (Sr) - Makowski (Fr)
Phillips (So) - Wrenn (So)
Ryder (rs-Jr) / Brehm (Sr) / Cook (Sr)

Goaltenders
Murray (So) / Brittain (Fr) / Paulgaard (Sr)

12 comments:

puck swami said...

This is a lineup that is going to need to most of its games 2-1 or 3-2 to have a shot.

I think this team will offensely challenged - will likely hover around 2.7 or 2.8 GPG

Crucial that DU's goalie needs to be totally ready in those first brutal eight games, or DU is going to be spending the season trying to climb out of a serious hole.

Anonymous said...

You never know...either Zucker, Shore or Bennett could have a huge impact right off the bat. Imagine if all three guys had break out freshman campains. the first 3 lines could all be strong if the chemistry is right. Remember alot of other teams have lost big time talent as well. Just keeping my head up....it should be exciting to watch!

puck swami said...

Even if Zucker, Shore and Bennett all have great rookie years, there is still a big offensive hole that needs filling just to reach last year's offensive output level, which was not all that great. About 50% of DU's offensive production has left the team, including scorers #1, #2, #3 and # on a team that ended up a only a 3.3 GPG team with the best top line in the country. In other words, the other guys did not score enough. Ostrow, Maiani and Martin need to match Ruegs, Rock and Colborne's output, and you need Donovan to equal Wiercioch. Then you need Zucker, Shore and Bennett to all have big years just to be a 3.0 team.

dggoddard said...

Rakhshani, Ruegsegger & Trotter more or less averaged 15 goals and 25 assists playing together as Freshmen.

Most would agree that Zucker, N. Shore and Bennett are further along in their development and potential than those three stars were in 2006.

Maiani should have a huge season. Drew Shore's the straw that stirs the drink. He needs to score on more than 5% of his shots. I'm hoping that playing with two talented wingers will make him college hockey's Breakout Player next season.

I still think the problem is production on the third and fourth lines.

dggoddard said...

BTW, Zucker is making a solid case for moving up to a first round draft choice at the World Under 18s.

Anonymous said...

Every year we do the same analysis: we lost "X" amount of scoring to graduation and early departures; we have freshman coming in that we can't have too high expectations for so we'll guess that they'll score "Y" points; and we'll use linear regression to project returning players to score "Z" number of points.

Is Y+Z>=X?

It's really a futile act. But I'm bored so here we go.

I'm calculating 182 lost points from last year.

Drew Shore (on the 3rd line) scored 19 points last year and Donovan scored 21 -- so I'll say Zucker (20), Bennett (20), N. Shore (20), Ozzy (5), Makowski (20). Total 85.

Overall returning points from last year are 170. Assuming marginal growth of 25% per returning player would be an additional 45 points (rounded). Now we're at 130. Still short about 50-55 points. This will have to be made up largely by players having breakout years and exceeding 25% growth. Many guys that are returning have the capability of doing this. I began listing them but the list got too long.

Call me crazy, but I think our offense will be better next year. I think we'll have 3 lines producing as oppossed to 2. And, just as important, if not more important, our defense will be much better next year. So much offense starts with the defense and I think that this will have the most dramatic effect on our overall offense.

Anonymous said...

Just for fun, I'll add to DG's list and throw in a wild card of Salazar.

Just my gut feeling on what happened last year: Gwoz told Salazar he needed to work hard over the summer, beef up, etc. He thought he was hot shit coming back as leading returning goal scorer and did none of what Gwoz told him. Dog house, season over.

Last year he scored 5 points. I could see him getting to the 20 point mark next season.

dggoddard said...

Until something changes in the WCHA, most goals are going to come via special teams.

Whomever is going to be on the first power play unit are going to see their numbers explode. Most every one else will likely settle near last year's numbers except Drew Shore & the Freshmen.

Donovan's minutes are probably going up significantly. I'd expect his assist total to rise significantly as well.

Last year's team couldn't blow teams out. Even weak sisters like Tech & UAA. That has to change.

Anonymous said...

Ahh, yes, the black cloud has reemerged. The balance has been restored.

Did anyone else notice that once Swami's black cloud dispersed DU's season went down the tubes??

I now have an even better feeling about next season...

Aluuum said...

You all(ya'll in texas) have your eye on the wrong ball. This year our weakness, that cost us games, was our poor defensive play in our own end. Our defensmen were good offensivly but stunk in controlling and clearing the puck out. Chevie saved their ass many times but couldn't always. I think we will be significantly better in this area next year. we better be because Chevie won't be there to save our butts.

puck swami said...

Swami's dark cloud is still there, believe me.

The last five Denver teams have all underachieved in the NCAAs, relative to their talent levels.

In most of those cases, the underachievement was closely tied to either an work ethic issue or an innability to adjust to player injury or player loss.

Anonymous said...

Aluum - I'm with you and completely agree on last year's breakdowns and the improvement we should expect next year.

My hope is that defense can be a wash next year. Last year we finished 10th nationally in GAA at 2.41. We lose Chevy but should have a better defense. Hopefully we stay in the top 10.

Last year our offense was 15th nationally. This needs to get into the top 10.

6 of the "elite 8" teams from this year were in the top 10 of scoring differential during the year. The frozen four were the top 4 teams and the final 2 were the top 2. This year might have been a bit of an anomaly this year, but I think that being strong in both scoring and defense is critically important.